{"id":4139,"date":"2026-02-06T11:00:26","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T10:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pharos390.com\/?p=4139"},"modified":"2026-02-18T16:35:42","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T15:35:42","slug":"vcfi-cyclical-correction-structural-adjustment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pharos390.com\/en\/vcfi-cyclical-correction-structural-adjustment\/","title":{"rendered":"VCFI January 2026: From cyclical correction to structural adjustment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Valencia Containerised Freight Index<\/strong><\/a> (VCFI), which tracks container export freight rates from the Port of Valencia<\/strong><\/a>, started 2026 with a further monthly decline <\/strong>of 2.74% (2,019.69 points), while still posting cumulative growth of 101.97% since 2018. Regional dynamics remain highly uneven, with a rebound <\/strong>in the Western Mediterranean<\/strong> (+9.20%) and a sharp correction<\/strong> in the Far Eas<\/strong>t (\u201325.73%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The evolution of the VCFI cannot be interpreted in isolation, but rather in the context of the macroeconomic<\/strong> and geopolitical<\/strong> environment that conditions the dynamics of international trade<\/strong> and, by extension, maritime transport<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, the start of 2026 is marked by persistent geopolitical tensions<\/strong>, risks <\/strong>on strategic shipping routes<\/strong>\u2014especially on the Asia-Europe axis\u2014and a more restrictive trade policy environment, inherited from the protectionist shift<\/strong> promoted by the Donald Trump administration, which continues to shape the tariff framework and regulatory uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, in an environment of greater fragmentation<\/strong> of global trade<\/strong>, the European Union<\/strong> has intensified its diversification<\/strong> of trading partners<\/strong> (agreements with Mercosur<\/strong><\/a> and India) as a long-term positioning strategy to strengthen the resilience <\/strong>of European foreign trade<\/strong> and open up new markets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These diversification dynamics are developing in a less expansive global macroeconomic context<\/strong>, which is already reflected in the growth <\/strong>forecasts for international trade.<\/strong> In this regard, the International Monetary Fund<\/strong><\/a> places global growth at around 3.3% <\/strong>in 2026, with uneven development <\/strong>between regions and without a sharp upturn in trade flows (IMF, 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This macroeconomic environment is reflected in maritime container trade<\/strong>, which starts 2026 with a contained growth momentum inherited from the end of 2025. According to the RWI\/ISL Container Throughput Index<\/em><\/strong>, global container traffic closed 2025 with a slight upturn, confirming a moderate recovery in global volumes despite trade uncertainty. However, performance<\/strong> was uneven<\/strong> across regions<\/strong>: Chinese ports showed a significant increase in throughput, while the Nordrange index (northern Europe) declined, reflecting weaker momentum in the European environment at the end of the year (RWI\/ISL, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capacity supply and structural adjustment in the freight market<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The slower growth<\/strong> of global trade <\/strong>and regional divergences<\/strong> are reshaping <\/strong>the market <\/strong>for maritime transport<\/strong>. In this new scenario, the sector is undergoing a phase of complex normalisation<\/strong>, marked by more subdued demand <\/strong>and greater operational volatility<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the perspective of capacity supply<\/strong>, fleet growth<\/strong> continues to outpace<\/strong> demand<\/strong>. The global fleet increased by around +3.5% in DWT (deadweight tonnage) in 2025, while global trade grew by just 1.1%. By 2026, capacity is expected to increase by a further 4\u20135%, compared to virtually stagnant demand measured in tonne-miles, intensifying pressure on capacity utilisation and freight rates, especially in long-haul traffic. The entry<\/strong> of new capacity<\/strong> in 2025\u20132026 has reinforced <\/strong>this imbalance <\/strong>between supply and demand, putting downward pressure on rates (Clarksons Research, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increase<\/strong> in installed capacity<\/strong> is reflected in an effective supply<\/strong> that remains high. According to Alphaliner<\/em>, at the beginning of 2026, the global container ship fleet is operating at virtually full capacity<\/strong>, with idle capacity levels of around 0.8%. However, diversions due to the situation<\/strong> in the Red Sea<\/strong> continue to absorb capacity <\/strong>due to longer transit times. Although some shipping companies have begun to reintroduce occasional services via the Suez Canal<\/strong>, a significant portion of high-capacity services continue to be diverted via the Cape of Good Hope<\/strong>. A broader return to the Suez Canal would free up currently retained capacity, with potential additional downward pressure on freight rates if not accompanied by a rebound in demand (Alphaliner, 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The imbalance between supply and demand is compounded by an insufficient rate of scrapping<\/strong>. The withdrawal of ships remains at very low levels (below 1% of the world fleet), which does not offset the entry of new units and contributes to a structural excess<\/strong> of capacity<\/strong> that will continue to put pressure on the market in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cyclical factors: Chinese New Year and pressure on spot freight rates<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Despite these tactical capacity adjustments, spot freight rates have continued to trend downward, reinforcing the reading of weaker demand and helping to explain the decline in rates from the Far East observed in January, beyond the usual seasonal pattern. This trend in spot freight rates is reflected in aggregate form in the VCFI, whose trajectory at the beginning of 2026 points to a freight market <\/strong>in the process of correction<\/strong>, conditioned by a structural imbalance<\/strong> between supply <\/strong>and demand <\/strong>and by still limited traction <\/strong>in international trade<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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References<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In addition to structural factors, recent dynamics incorporate a short-term<\/strong> cyclical element<\/strong>: the seasonality<\/strong> associated with the Chinese New Year<\/strong>. In the weeks leading up to the holiday, there is usually an advance <\/strong>in exports <\/strong>from Asia, which can generate temporary peaks<\/strong> in demand <\/strong>and occasional spikes<\/strong> in rates<\/strong>. However, in 2026 this effect has been weaker than usual. According to Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker<\/strong><\/a> of 6 February 2026, demand prior to factory closures slowed earlier than expected, leading to an increase in blank sailings: cancellations on major East-West routes rose by 118% month-on-month in February. In the weeks following the holiday, cancellations of around 18% of scheduled services have been announced, with a particular impact on the Transpacific and, to a lesser extent, Asia\u2013Europe\/Mediterranean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n