{"id":4391,"date":"2026-02-25T11:18:30","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T10:18:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pharos390.com\/?p=4391"},"modified":"2026-02-25T15:54:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-25T14:54:52","slug":"15000-kilometres-of-persistent-wind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pharos390.com\/en\/15000-kilometres-of-persistent-wind\/","title":{"rendered":"15,000 kilometres of persistent wind"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Between 22 January and 15 February 2026, a chain of seven storms<\/strong> (six Atlantic and one Cantabrian) affected the Iberian Peninsula, causing severe flooding in Portugal and Andalusia. This is an abnormally prolonged<\/strong> situation which, in the Valencian Community, has generated a succession of intense and persistent westerly or north-westerly storms, with little rainfall and mild temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET)<\/strong><\/a> has produced a table showing the daily wind speed<\/strong> and the accumulated wind speed over 25 days <\/strong>at the Valencia airport weather station, which has had consistent records since 1966 \u2014 a relatively long series (60 years), suitable for identifying anomalies and estimating rare events, although with uncertainty for very long returns\u2014and is located in an open environment, with no significant obstacles to alter the measurement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On 15 February, the cumulative wind distance<\/strong>, including the previous 24 days, exceeded 15,000 km<\/strong>, which is the highest value in the entire available series, and the wind is still expected to persist for another 4 or 5 days, so the record set on the 15th could still be broken. Historical analysis shows, however, two other episodes of high wind persistence and intensity<\/strong>: one at the end of 1981 (very similar to the current one) and another in February 1979 (11% lower). Therefore, the current situation is not unprecedented within the available observational series and could fall within the natural variability of the multidecadal scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The brevity of the historical series and the geographical limitation of these records do not allow us to establish whether the January-February episode has been influenced by the effect of anthropogenic climate change<\/strong>, i.e. whether it has been intensified by it. To establish this link with certainty, it is essential to carry out an attribution study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Attribution studies compare the probability<\/strong> and intensity of the event<\/strong> observed in the current climate\u2014influenced by greenhouse gas emissions<\/strong>\u2014with climate simulations representing a scenario without significant anthropogenic influence (pre-industrial conditions). If the phenomenon is significantly more likely<\/strong>, more intense<\/strong>, longer lasting<\/strong> or affects a larger area in the current climate, it is concluded that climate change has had an influence<\/strong> and its contribution is quantified. If the differences are not statistically significant, the phenomenon is interpreted as part of the natural variability of the climate system<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These studies are methodologically complex and tend to focus on events with a high social and economic impact. In addition, the phenomenon must be clearly defined in terms of space and time<\/strong>, measurable using well-defined variables (temperature, precipitation, wind<\/strong>), and there must be sufficient observational data and climate models capable of representing it adequately. Currently, heat waves and heavy precipitation have a robust climate signal<\/strong> and are well represented in models<\/strong>. Persistent wind in mid-latitudes is modelable, but presents greater uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A recent example is the attribution study on the rainfall associated with the DANA<\/strong> in October 2024, led by the University of Valladolid and AEMET, with the participation of CSIC and other centres. According to the analysis, current global warming conditions increased the intensity of rainfall by 21%, the area with accumulations greater than 180 mm by 56%, and the total volume of rainfall in the J\u00facar basin by 19% compared to a pre-industrial scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the case of the current episode of consecutive wind storms, the available evidence suggests that this is an exceptional event<\/strong> within the observational series, but it is not possible to conclude whether it is influenced by climate change without a specific attribution study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, human memory is short, and we always seem to think that this summer has been hotter, this winter colder, or that this year has seen more rain or wind, statements that are often highly subjective. Therefore, to determine with certainty how climate change influences a specific phenomenon, the only reliable way is through observation<\/strong>, modelling<\/strong> and analysis<\/strong> provided by science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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References<\/h3>\n\n\n\n