The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a monthly increase of16.22% in March 2026, standing at 2,268.59 points, representing a significant shift from the moderating trend observed in previous months. With this result, the index has achieved cumulative growth of 126.86% since the series began in 2018.

By geographical area, the Western Mediterranean saw a monthly increase of 21.10%, reaching 3,999.80 points, bringing its cumulative growth to 299.98% since 2018. Meanwhile, the Far East recorded a monthly increase of 32.60%, standing at 2,246.94 points, with cumulative growth of 124.69% since the start of the series.

The trend in container sea freight rates in March reflects the interplay between structural market factors and cyclical factors, both market-specific and geopolitical. Following the correction observed in previous months, against a backdrop of lower demand and overcapacity, freight rates have shown a significant rebound driven by rising costs, largely stemming from geopolitical tensions on strategic shipping routes.

From a structural perspective, the market continues to be characterised by sustained growth in fleet capacity, which has outpaced global throughput growth in various periods. This mismatch between supply and demand, against a backdrop of more moderate and volatile demand growth, coupled with greater supply rigidity, reinforces the trend towards overcapacity and maintains underlying downward pressure on freight rates.

Furthermore, during March, market-specific and geopolitical factors coincided, influencing its short-term performance.

From an operational perspective, it should be noted that the disruptions observed are partly due to the reconfiguration of transport networks following the Chinese New Year. Following a slowdown in services associated with the Chinese New Year, the reactivation of logistics chains is taking place gradually and unevenly, causing imbalances in rotations and reducing effective available capacity.

However, the determining factor in March has been the intensification of tensions in the Middle East, which has caused significant disruptions to international maritime traffic, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key strategic chokepoints for global trade. Restrictions on transit, the diversion of vessels and increased operational risks have contributed significantly to market tensions in the short term.

Furthermore, these tensions have had a direct impact on energy markets, causing a sharp rise in the price of oil, which has exceeded $100 per barrel against a backdrop of high volatility. This increase has been passed on to marine fuel costs (bunkering), which have seen very significant rises in the main benchmarks, with increases of over 100% in products such as IFO380, MGO and VLSFO between late January and March, according to data from Ship&Bunker, exerting additional upward pressure on freight rates.

Furthermore, as a result of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated route diversions, although levels of commercially inactive capacity remain low—at around 0.7% of the global fleet according to the latest data published by Alphaliner—a significant portion of capacity is currently operationally unavailable.

Against this backdrop, maritime transport operations continue to show signs of deterioration in the short term. In February 2026, schedule reliability stood at around 59%, the lowest level since April 2025, with average delays of approximately 5.5 days. These inefficiencies, linked to route deviations , port congestion and operational imbalances, are helping to absorb additional capacity and putting pressure on system costs.

Overall, the developments observed in March highlight that, whilst structural factors continue to point towards an environment of oversupply, market dynamics, together with geopolitical factors, are playing a decisive role in the short term, driving up freight rates and increasing market volatility.

References

• Alphaliner. 2026. Alphaliner Weekly Newsletter.
• Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI), & Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL).
• RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index. Available at: https://www.isl.org/en/services/rwiisl-container-throughput-index-0825 [Accessed: 15 April 2026].
• Sea-Intelligence. 2026. February 2026 Global Schedule Reliability Falls to 59.0%. Available at: https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room/379-february-2026-global-schedule-reliability-falls-to-59-0 [Accessed: 15 April 2026]. Ship & Bunker. 2026. Global Bunker Price Indications. Available at: https://shipandbunker.com [Accessed: 15 April 2026].

*Disclaimer: This English version has been generated with the support of AI-based translation tools. In case of discrepancies, the Spanish original prevails.