The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI), which tracks container export freight rates from the Port of Valencia, rose by 7.84% month-on-month in September 2026 (2,948.60 points), bringing cumulative growth to 194.86% since 2018. The rebound recovers much of August’s decline (–8.97%), although performance diverged by region: the Far East gained 3.37% (2,338.61 points), while the Western Mediterranean fell 2.77% (3,484.20 points).

This rebound in container freight rates should be read with caution. September is traditionally a transition month after the peak season, when carriers try to support rates through general rate increases and blank sailings around China’s Golden Week (1–7 October). The VCFI’s trend is consistent with that of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which rose 4.35% to 3,662.30 points, driven by routes to the United States (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 2026). By contrast, rates to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean kept weakening, to USD 2,199 and 2,996/TEU respectively, and the World Container Index recorded twelve consecutive weeks of declines on the Asia–Europe route (Drewry, 2026).

Demand lags behind global trade

The macroeconomic backdrop offers only moderate support. The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% (+0.1 pp) and lowered its 2027 forecast to 3.0% (–0.1 pp), underpinned by AI-related activity, while warning of still-high inflation in the G20 (4.1%) and of a dependence on a lasting resolution of the Middle East conflict (OECD, 2026). Likewise, the WTO Goods Trade Barometer rose to 102.0 points, above trend, but the container shipping sub-index (99.6) was the only one to remain below it (WTO, 2026).

Volumes confirm this reading. According to the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, global port activity was virtually stable in August (141.9 points), with uneven regional performance: the North Range index rose sharply from 120.5 to 123.9 points, while Chinese ports stagnated at 155.8 points (RWI/ISL, 2026).

Capacity supply: Suez versus port congestion

On the supply side, the idle fleet remained at minimal levels. Alphaliner counted 108 idle vessels (254,784 TEU, 0.7% of a global fleet of 34.2 million TEU) and total idle capacity, including ships in dry dock, of 780,889 TEU, or 2.3% of the fleet (Alphaliner, 2026). Around 123,000 TEU more remain trapped in the Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz closed de facto to commercial shipping. Conversely, the gradual return to the Suez Canal is releasing effective capacity: transits in week 39 were 68% higher than in the same period a year earlier (Drewry, 2026). This helps explain the weakness of rates on the Asia–Europe trade.

Port congestion acts as a counterweight. Capacity waiting for a berth reached a record 4.31 million TEU (12.6% of the fleet) at the end of August, above the 2022 peak, and still exceeded 4 million TEU in mid-September. Waiting times were particularly long in Shanghai and Ningbo, averaging 4.7 and 3.6 days respectively, aggravated by typhoons (Linerlytica, 2026).

Fuel and outlook

Fuel costs added further pressure. Across a 20-port average, VLSFO rose from USD 821.50 to 860.50/t after peaking at USD 901.50/t in mid-month, and IFO380 climbed from USD 648 to 726.50/t (Ship & Bunker, 2026). The increase followed Brent crude, which rose from USD 96/barrel to a peak of USD 130.80/barrel on 15 September amid intensifying disruption to production and exports from Gulf countries.

Overall, September’s rebound reflects carriers’ ability to pass on costs and manage supply more than any improvement in demand. In the fourth quarter, the VCFI’s trajectory will depend on the balance between the capacity released by the return to Suez and that absorbed by port congestion and the closure of Hormuz, as well as on fuel prices that remain highly sensitive to the situation in the Gulf.

References

• Alphaliner. 2026. Alphaliner Weekly Bulletin.
• Drewry. 2026. Global Container Index. Available at: https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry [Accessed 2 October 2026].
• Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI) and Institute for Maritime Economics and Logistics (ISL). 2026. RWI/ISL Container Transit Index. Available at: https://www.isl.org/en/services/rwiisl-container-throughput-index [Accessed 2 October 2026].
• Linerlytica. 2026. Port Congestion Watch. Available at: https://www.linerlytica.com [Accessed: 02-10-2026].
• OECD. 2026. OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026: Weathering Successive Shocks. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en.html [Accessed: 2 October 2026].
• Shanghai Shipping Exchange. 2026. Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI). Available at: https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp [Accessed: 2 October 2026].
• Ship & Bunker. 2026. Global 20 Ports Average Bunker Prices. Available at: https://shipandbunker.com/prices/av/global/av-g20-global-20-ports-average [Accessed: 2 October 2026].
• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2026. Crude Oil Prices: Brent – Europe [DCOILBRENTEU], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Available at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU [Accessed: 2 October 2026].
• World Trade Organization (WTO). 2026. Goods Trade Barometer, September 2026. Available at: Goods barometer points to resilient trade growth despite headwinds [Accessed: 02-10-2026].

*Disclaimer: This English version has been generated with the support of AI-based translation tools. In case of discrepancies, the Spanish original prevails.