The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a monthly increase of 12.31% in May 2026, standing at 2,846.47 points, with cumulative growth of 184.65% since the series began in 2018. This rise represents an acceleration compared with the previous month (+9.84%), against a backdrop of high geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

By geographical area, performance has been markedly mixed. The Middle East recorded the sharpest rise of the month, whilst Atlantic Europe (+12.42%), the Baltic States (+12.65%) and the Western Mediterranean (+10.04%) also showed significant gains. Conversely, West Africa (-8.49%) and the US and Canada (-2.42%) are the only routes to record declines, whilst the Eastern Mediterranean remained virtually unchanged (+0.62%).

From an economic and trade perspective, May is set against a backdrop of slowing global trade. In its May 2026 report, UNCTAD projects that global merchandise trade growth will fall to between 1.5% and 2.5% in real terms, compared to the 4.7% recorded in 2025, as a result of geopolitical uncertainty, financial market volatility and disruptions on major shipping routes.

This trend is clearly reflected in the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, which, in its 29 May release, recorded a further decline in April, falling by a further point from 142.2 points in March — a figure revised upwards — to 141.2 points, reversing the upturn seen at the start of the year.

According to the RWI and ISL, the impact of the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor in this development, as it is causing disruptions to supply chains, driving up transport costs and dampening activity in the main port regions. The decline is particularly marked in Chinese ports, where the index fell from 161.0 to 158.5 points in April, with the drops attributed to both supply chain disruptions and weak demand.

Meanwhile, the Nordrange Index — considered a leading indicator of economic activity in the northern eurozone, and in particular in Germany — fell from 120.0 to 118.5 points, consolidating a downward trend which, according to the RWI, shows no signs of reversing in the short term. Against this backdrop, the approval on 20 May of the Turnberry Agreement between the European Union and the United States—which provides for the removal of tariffs on most industrial goods in both directions—brings an element of stabilisation to transatlantic trade relations.

On the supply side, Alphaliner’s data show an exceptionally low level of commercial inactivity throughout the month: on 4 May, just 81 vessels (243,844 TEU) were inactive, equivalent to 0.7% of the global fleet; on 18 May, this figure fell further to 59 vessels (189,285 TEU), representing 0.6% of a fleet of 34.1 MTEU, a level comparable to full employment in the sector. Added to this are at least 57 additional vessels (280,000 TEU) diverted or on standby due to the conflict in the Gulf region, which further reduces effective supply. Including dry-docked capacity (164 vessels, 682,100 TEU), total non-operational capacity represents 2% of the global fleet.

Against this backdrop of very tight supply, port congestion as measured by Linerlytica showed a gradual recovery throughout the month, rising from 2.68 MTEU (7.9% of the fleet) at the start of May to 2.96 MTEU (8.7%) by month-end. Vessel anchorage showed more volatile behaviour, peaking at 1,023 vessels (3.93 MTEU) on 26 May, before moderating slightly by the end of the month.

As for fuel costs, May saw a significant correction following the sharp rise in April. According to data from Ship&Bunker, VLSFO fell from USD 925.5/MT at the start of the month to USD 843.5/MT on 29 May, whilst IFO380 dropped from USD 753.5 to USD 721.0/MT.

This trend is consistent with the 19.26% monthly fall in Brent crude, which closed the month at around $91/barrel after reaching highs of over $126/barrel at the end of April. However, bunker prices remain well above pre-conflict levels, meaning that rising fuel costs continue to put pressure on freight rates, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month.

Overall, May 2026 saw a freight market underpinned by very tight effective supply and demand which, despite the slowdown in global trade, remains higher than expected. Looking ahead to the coming months, the VCFI’s performance will continue to be determined primarily by the development of the conflict in the Gulf region and its impact on shipping routes, as well as by the ability of shipping companies to maintain capacity discipline as the peak season begins.

References

• Alphaliner. 2026. Alphaliner Weekly Bulletin.
• Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI) and Institute for Maritime Economics and Logistics (ISL). 2026. RWI/ISL Container Traffic Index. Available at: https://www.isl.org/en/services/rwiisl-container-throughput-index [Accessed: 16 June 2026].
• Ship & Bunker. 2026. Global fuel price indices. Available at: https://shipandbunker.com [Accessed: 16 June 2026].
• UNCTAD. 2026. World Trade Update, May 2026. Available at: https://unctad.org [Accessed: 16 June 2026].